| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Gross Margin % | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $506B | $33 | 43% | — | ||||
| strong bull | $111B | $7 | 16% | — | ||||
| base | ($34B) | $0 | 14% | — | ||||
| bear | ($31B) | $0 | 14% | — | ||||
| failure | ($28B) | $0 | 14% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $15/share?
| Scenario | AI Platform EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $506B | $33 | 42.5% | $14 |
| strong bull | $111B | $7 | 15.9% | $1 |
| base | ($34B) | $-2 | 13.9% | $-0 |
| bear | ($31B) | $-2 | 13.9% | $-0 |
| failure | ($28B) | $-2 | 13.9% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $15/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to the AI Platform's incremental value. iPhone, Services, Mac/iPad/Wearables, and net cash contribute separately. AI also drives iPhone upgrades (captured in iPhone model).
Target contribution: $15/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.