| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Gross Margin % | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $2.1T | $137 | 60% | — | ||||
| bull | $1.6T | $105 | 34% | — | ||||
| base | $918B | $60 | 2% | — | ||||
| bear | $515B | $34 | 2% | — | ||||
| decline | $383B | $25 | 2% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $120/share?
| Scenario | iPhone EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $2.1T | $137 | 60.0% | $82 |
| bull | $1.6T | $105 | 34.0% | $36 |
| base | $918B | $60 | 2.0% | $1 |
| bear | $515B | $34 | 2.0% | $1 |
| decline | $383B | $25 | 2.0% | $1 |
| Total | 100% | $120/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to the iPhone segment's contribution to Apple equity. Services, Mac/iPad/Wearables, AI Platform, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $120/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.