| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Gross Margin % | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $514B | $34 | 54% | — | ||||
| bull | $325B | $21 | 14% | — | ||||
| base | $236B | $16 | 11% | — | ||||
| bear | $138B | $9 | 11% | — | ||||
| decline | $99B | $7 | 11% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $25/share?
| Scenario | Mac/iPad/Wearables EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $514B | $34 | 53.8% | $18 |
| bull | $325B | $21 | 13.8% | $3 |
| base | $236B | $16 | 10.8% | $2 |
| bear | $138B | $9 | 10.8% | $1 |
| decline | $99B | $7 | 10.8% | $1 |
| Total | 100% | $25/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to the Mac/iPad/Wearables segment. iPhone, Services, AI Platform, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $25/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.