| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Gross Margin % | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $1.8T | $120 | 16% | — | ||||
| bull | $1.5T | $100 | 16% | — | ||||
| base | $1.1T | $74 | 16% | — | ||||
| bear | $676B | $45 | 17% | — | ||||
| regulatory crisis | $447B | $29 | 35% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $65/share?
| Scenario | Services EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $1.8T | $120 | 16.0% | $19 |
| bull | $1.5T | $100 | 16.0% | $16 |
| base | $1.1T | $74 | 16.0% | $12 |
| bear | $676B | $45 | 17.3% | $8 |
| regulatory crisis | $447B | $29 | 34.7% | $10 |
| Total | 100% | $65/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to the Services segment's contribution to Apple equity. iPhone, Mac/iPad/Wearables, AI Platform, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $65/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.