Display & Adjacent Markets — Scenario Model

Current Price

$363

Display & Adjacent Markets Component

$30/sh

Market Implies

95% chance of upside scenarios

5% bear probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
bull	$8B	$8	75%	oled recovery
base	$4B	$4	20%	—
bear	$2B	$2	5%	display downturn

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2026

packaging ramp

Advanced packaging equipment revenue reaches $500M+

Unlocks: Validates packaging as a meaningful growth vector for AMAT

CoWoS capacity expansion, HBM4 ramp, chiplet adoption

2028

oled recovery

OLED Gen 8.5+ investment cycle begins

Unlocks: Restores display equipment demand after multi-year downturn

BOE and Samsung Display planning Gen 8.5 OLED lines for IT panels

2026

display downturn

OLED investment cycle bottoms — Chinese panel makers defer Gen 8.5

Unlocks: Display revenue drops 25%+ from peak. Only packaging prevents worse decline.

Display market historically drops 20-30% in downturns

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $30/share?

Scenario	Display & Adjacent EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
bull	$8B	$10	75.0%	$7
base	$4B	$5	20.0%	$1
bear	$2B	$2	5.0%	$0
Total			100%	$8/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to Display & Adjacent's contribution to AMAT equity. Semi Systems, AGS, and net cash contribute separately.

Target contribution: $30/sh. Residual: $21.6/sh.