| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $225B | $21 | 75% | — | |||
| bull | $42B | $4 | 10% | — | |||
| base | ($6B) | $0 | 5% | — | |||
| bear | ($7B) | $0 | 5% | — | |||
| collapse | ($5B) | $0 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $16/share?
| Scenario | AI & Emerging Segment EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $225B | $21 | 75.0% | $16 |
| bull | $42B | $4 | 10.0% | $0 |
| base | ($6B) | $-1 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| bear | ($7B) | $-1 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| collapse | ($5B) | $-0 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $16/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to the AI & Emerging segment's contribution to Amazon equity. AWS, Retail, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $16/sh. Residual: $0.1/sh.