| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $2.3T | $212 | 41% | — | |||
| bull | $1.2T | $107 | 16% | — | |||
| base | $692B | $64 | 14% | — | |||
| bear | $392B | $36 | 14% | — | |||
| collapse | $143B | $13 | 14% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $120/share?
| Scenario | AWS Segment EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $2.3T | $212 | 40.8% | $86 |
| bull | $1.2T | $107 | 16.2% | $17 |
| base | $692B | $64 | 14.3% | $9 |
| bear | $392B | $36 | 14.3% | $5 |
| collapse | $143B | $13 | 14.3% | $2 |
| Total | 100% | $120/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to AWS's contribution to Amazon equity. Retail, AI & Emerging, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $120/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.