| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $932B | $86 | 70% | — | |||
| bull | $451B | $42 | 11% | — | |||
| base | $261B | $24 | 6% | — | |||
| bear | $124B | $11 | 6% | — | |||
| collapse | $9B | $1 | 6% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $67/share?
| Scenario | Retail Segment EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $932B | $86 | 69.8% | $60 |
| bull | $451B | $42 | 10.9% | $5 |
| base | $261B | $24 | 6.4% | $2 |
| bear | $124B | $12 | 6.4% | $1 |
| collapse | $9B | $1 | 6.4% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $67/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Retail's contribution to Amazon equity. AWS, AI & Emerging, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $67/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.