| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Ethernet Share % | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $150B | $119 | 47% | platform scale | ||||
| bull | $74B | $59 | 15% | — | ||||
| base | $29B | $23 | 13% | spectrum x cpo | ||||
| bear | $9B | $7 | 13% | bundling threat | ||||
| collapse | $4B | $3 | 13% | mandatory bundling |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $69/share?
| Scenario | AI Cloud Networking EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $150B | $119 | 46.7% | $56 |
| bull | $74B | $59 | 15.2% | $9 |
| base | $29B | $23 | 12.7% | $3 |
| bear | $9B | $7 | 12.7% | $1 |
| collapse | $4B | $3 | 12.7% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $69/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to AI Cloud Networking's contribution to Arista equity. This is the existential bet — 57% of equity value. Enterprise networking, Moat premium, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $69/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.