| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Campus Rev | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $61B | $48 | 48% | campus at scale | ||||
| bull | $35B | $28 | 15% | campus ramp | ||||
| base | $23B | $18 | 12% | — | ||||
| bear | $15B | $12 | 12% | — | ||||
| decline | $10B | $8 | 12% | margin pressure |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $32/share?
| Scenario | Enterprise Networking EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $61B | $48 | 48.5% | $23 |
| bull | $35B | $28 | 14.8% | $4 |
| base | $23B | $18 | 12.2% | $2 |
| bear | $15B | $12 | 12.2% | $1 |
| decline | $10B | $8 | 12.2% | $1 |
| Total | 100% | $32/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to enterprise networking's contribution to Arista equity. AI Cloud Networking, Moat premium, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $32/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.