China Export Risk / Premium — Scenario Model

Current Price

$1369

China Export Risk / Premium Component

$100/sh

Market Implies

74% chance of upside scenarios

26% bear probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
bull	$41B	$41	41%	partial relaxation
base	$21B	$21	33%	smee emergence
bear	$4B	$4	26%	china self sufficiency

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2025

controls stabilize

Dutch export controls unchanged for 12+ months

Unlocks: Market confidence that current regime is the equilibrium

Dutch government sovereignty statements [Reuters]

2028

partial relaxation

Partial relaxation for mature DUV to China

Unlocks: Reopens some sales channels, reduces geopolitical discount

Diplomatic normalization scenario if US-China tensions ease

2030

smee emergence

SMEE achieves limited 28nm capability

Unlocks: Some mature-node DUV orders shift to domestic Chinese equipment

SMEE 28nm target 2027-2028 [Chinese govt]

2026

total duv ban

Dutch government restricts ALL DUV sales to China

Unlocks: Eliminates the largest remaining China revenue stream

US pressure escalation; Dutch compliance [BIS/Diplomatic]

2029

china self sufficiency

China achieves partial lithography self-sufficiency

Unlocks: SMEE + government programs replace some ASML DUV demand

Chinese gov $50B+ in semiconductor subsidies

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $100/share?

Scenario	China Revenue Stream EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
bull	$41B	$166	41.2%	$68
base	$21B	$84	32.5%	$27
bear	$4B	$17	26.3%	$4
Total			100%	$100/sh

Note: Values the China revenue stream under different export control scenarios. Bull = controls ease. Bear = total DUV ban.

Target contribution: $100/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.