← ASML/EUV Lithography Systems — Scenario Model
Blue = input assumption|Black = computed

EUV Lithography Systems — Scenario Model

Current Price
$1369
EUV Lithography Systems Component
$900/sh
Market Implies
91% chance of upside scenarios
9% bear probability

Scenario Overview

ScenarioEV$/shProbEuv Revenue UsdEbit Margin %FcfHigh Na SystemsKey Gate
bull$256B$25680%exe5200 orders
base$121B$12111%high na margin parity
bear$34B$349%cycle downturn

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2025
Y1
high na eval
High-NA EUV in R&D/eval at all 3 customers
Unlocks: Validates technology path; builds customer confidence for production orders
Intel, TSMC, Samsung all received High-NA systems by 2024
2026
Y2
high na production
High-NA enters production insertion at TSMC
Unlocks: Unlocks volume ramp; validates yield performance
TSMC N2 uses High-NA for critical metal layers
2028
Y4
n2 mass production
2nm mass production across TSMC, Samsung, Intel
Unlocks: Peak demand for High-NA systems
TSMC N2 mass production 2025, Samsung 2GAP 2026, Intel 18A 2026
2030
Y6
high na margin parity
High-NA gross margins reach parity with standard EUV
Unlocks: Removes margin dilution overhang; earnings accelerate
ASML CEO: margin parity 2029-2030 [ASML Q4 2024]
2033
Y9
exe5200 orders
First EXE:5200 (hyper-NA, 0.75) orders received
Unlocks: Extends monopoly for another decade; EUR 500M+ per system expected
EXE:5200 in development for sub-1nm, 2030+ timeframe [ASML Investor Day]
2027
Y3
intel struggles
Intel 18A delays reduce one of three EUV customers
Unlocks: Intel capex reduced; fewer EUV orders from one of only 3 customers
Intel Foundry execution struggles [Industry Press]
2029
Y5
cycle downturn
Semiconductor equipment cycle turns down
Unlocks: 20-30% capex cuts by chipmakers; bookings drop sharply
Historical: semi equipment downturns occur every 3-5 years

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $900/share?

ScenarioEUV Segment EVPer ShareImplied Prob.Weighted Contrib.
bull$256B$104480.0%$835
base$121B$49510.5%$52
bear$34B$1389.5%$13
Total100%$900/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to ASML's EUV lithography segment (standard EUV + High-NA). Revenue in EUR, converted to USD at 1.09 for DCF.

Target contribution: $900/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.