Non-AI Semiconductor — Scenario Model

Current Price

$301

Non-AI Semiconductor Component

$17/sh

Market Implies

79% chance of upside scenarios

21% bear probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
bull	$102B	$21	49%	docsis4 volume
base	$72B	$15	29%	—
bear	$41B	$9	21%	apple n1 full impact

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027

docsis4 volume

DOCSIS 4.0 reaches volume deployment at major cable operators

Unlocks: Drives broadband revenue recovery; Broadcom near-monopoly on DOCSIS silicon

Unified chipsets with Comcast/Charter supporting 25 Gbps [broadband.json]; retail modems on shelves 2026 [broadband.json]; near-monopoly position with minimal competition [broadband.json]

2027

apple n1 full impact

Apple N1 chip transition complete across iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple TV, HomePod

Unlocks: Full removal of Broadcom Wi-Fi/Bluetooth revenue from Apple; only RF filter retained

Apple N1: Wi-Fi 7 + Bluetooth 6 + Thread, replacing Broadcom [wifi_bluetooth.json]; iPad/Mac transition in 2026 [wifi_bluetooth.json]

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $17/share?

Scenario	Non-AI Semi EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
bull	$102B	$22	49.5%	$11
base	$72B	$15	29.1%	$4
bear	$41B	$9	21.4%	$2
Total			100%	$17/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to Non-AI Semiconductor (broadband, wireless, storage, industrial). AI Semi and Software contribute separately.

Target contribution: $17/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.