| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $16B | $16 | 75% | multi gw orders | |||
| base | $7B | $7 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | ($0B) | $0 | 5% | — |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $92/share?
| Scenario | Fuel Cells EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $16B | $55 | 75.0% | $41 |
| base | $7B | $24 | 20.0% | $5 |
| bear | ($0B) | $-2 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $46/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Fuel Cells' contribution to BE equity. Hydrogen, Services, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $92/sh. Residual: $46.1/sh.