| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $6B | $6 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $0B | $0 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | ($0B) | $0 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $38/share?
| Scenario | Hydrogen EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $6B | $23 | 75.0% | $17 |
| base | $0B | $2 | 20.0% | $0 |
| bear | ($0B) | $-0 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $17/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Hydrogen's contribution to BE equity. Fuel Cells, Services, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $38/sh. Residual: $20.5/sh.