| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $3B | $3 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $2B | $2 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $0B | $0 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $15/share?
| Scenario | Services EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $3B | $11 | 75.0% | $8 |
| base | $2B | $6 | 20.0% | $1 |
| bear | $0B | $1 | 5.0% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $9/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Services' contribution to BE equity. Fuel Cells, Hydrogen, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $15/sh. Residual: $5.7/sh.