| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $7B | $7 | 59% | — | |||
| base | $2B | $2 | 25% | — | |||
| bear | $1B | $1 | 16% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $15/share?
| Scenario | Clean Premium EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $7B | $22 | 58.5% | $13 |
| base | $2B | $8 | 25.3% | $2 |
| bear | $1B | $2 | 16.2% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $15/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to the Clean Energy Premium's contribution to CEG equity. Nuclear Fleet, Commercial & Retail, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $15/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.