| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $7B | $7 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $4B | $4 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | ($0B) | $0 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $60/share?
| Scenario | Commercial & Retail EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $7B | $22 | 75.0% | $17 |
| base | $4B | $11 | 20.0% | $2 |
| bear | ($0B) | $-0 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $19/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Commercial & Retail's contribution to CEG equity. Nuclear Fleet, Clean Energy Premium, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $60/sh. Residual: $41.0/sh.