| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $72B | $72 | 70% | pjm capacity surge | |||
| base | $50B | $50 | 22% | — | |||
| bear | $21B | $21 | 8% | — |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $200/share?
| Scenario | Nuclear Fleet EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $72B | $229 | 70.0% | $160 |
| base | $50B | $159 | 21.6% | $34 |
| bear | $21B | $68 | 8.4% | $6 |
| Total | 100% | $200/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to the Nuclear Fleet's contribution to CEG equity. Commercial & Retail, Clean Energy Premium, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $200/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.