| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $19B | $19 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $4B | $4 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | ($0B) | $0 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $29/share?
| Scenario | AI Premium EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $19B | $19 | 75.0% | $15 |
| base | $4B | $5 | 20.0% | $1 |
| bear | ($0B) | $-0 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $15/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to AI Premium's contribution to Salesforce equity. Core CRM and Platform contribute separately.
Target contribution: $29/sh. Residual: $13.8/sh.