| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $137B | $137 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $89B | $89 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $52B | $52 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $152/share?
| Scenario | Core CRM EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $137B | $143 | 75.0% | $107 |
| base | $89B | $93 | 20.0% | $19 |
| bear | $52B | $54 | 5.0% | $3 |
| Total | 100% | $128/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Core CRM's contribution to Salesforce equity. Platform and AI Premium contribute separately.
Target contribution: $152/sh. Residual: $23.9/sh.