| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $55B | $55 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $27B | $27 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $9B | $9 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $79/share?
| Scenario | Platform EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $55B | $57 | 75.0% | $43 |
| base | $27B | $28 | 20.0% | $6 |
| bear | $9B | $9 | 5.0% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $49/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Platform's contribution to Salesforce equity. Core CRM and AI Premium contribute separately.
Target contribution: $79/sh. Residual: $30.3/sh.