| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $20B | $20 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $11B | $11 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $3B | $3 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $30/share?
| Scenario | CSG EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $20B | $27 | 75.0% | $21 |
| base | $11B | $16 | 20.0% | $3 |
| bear | $3B | $4 | 5.0% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $24/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to CSG's contribution to Dell equity. ISG and Services contribute separately.
Target contribution: $30/sh. Residual: $6.1/sh.