| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $71B | $71 | 52% | — | |||
| base | $36B | $36 | 27% | — | |||
| bear | ($0B) | $0 | 21% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $65/share?
| Scenario | ISG EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $71B | $99 | 52.0% | $52 |
| base | $36B | $50 | 27.4% | $14 |
| bear | ($0B) | $-1 | 20.7% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $65/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to ISG's contribution to Dell equity. CSG and Services contribute separately.
Target contribution: $65/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.