| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $31B | $31 | 5% | — | |||
| base | $19B | $19 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $9B | $9 | 75% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $15/share?
| Scenario | Services EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $31B | $43 | 5.0% | $2 |
| base | $19B | $26 | 20.0% | $5 |
| bear | $9B | $13 | 75.0% | $10 |
| Total | 100% | $17/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Services' contribution to Dell equity. ISG and CSG contribute separately.
Target contribution: $15/sh. Residual: $2.1/sh.