| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Adjacent Revenue | Gross Margin % | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $3B | $3 | 20% | — | ||||
| base | $0B | $0 | 38% | — | ||||
| bear | ($0B) | $0 | 42% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $1/share?
| Scenario | Adjacent Products EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $3B | $6 | 19.9% | $1 |
| base | $0B | $1 | 38.2% | $0 |
| bear | ($0B) | $-0 | 41.9% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $1/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to the incremental contribution of Sites, Buzz, Draw, Weave, and Payload CMS above and beyond the core design platform. No standalone SKU revenue has been disclosed — Y1 revenue is modeled as incremental Content Seat ($96/yr) and Full Seat ($192/yr) expansion attributable to these products. WACC 11.5-13% reflects moderate uncertainty; the central belief is the base case (defensive bundle) rather than a disruption scenario.
Target contribution: $1/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.