| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Revenue Growth % | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $7B | $7 | 29% | — | ||||
| base | $5B | $5 | 50% | — | ||||
| bear | $1B | $1 | 21% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $10/share?
| Scenario | Core Design EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $7B | $13 | 29.0% | $4 |
| base | $5B | $10 | 50.0% | $5 |
| bear | $1B | $3 | 21.0% | $1 |
| Total | 100% | $10/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to the Core Design Platform's contribution to FIG equity. This is one sub-area of Figma's PIE model — Figma Make / AI products, adjacent products (Sites, Buzz, Draw, Weave), net cash, and consumption-pricing optionality contribute separately. WACC 11.3% (Rf 4.3% + β1.4 × 5.0% ERP).
Target contribution: $10/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.