| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Make Revenue | Gross Margin % | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $19B | $19 | 17% | — | ||||
| bull | $3B | $3 | 17% | — | ||||
| base | $0B | $0 | 18% | — | ||||
| stagnation | ($0B) | $0 | 22% | — | ||||
| disruption | ($0B) | $0 | 26% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $7/share?
| Scenario | Make + AI Platform EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $19B | $37 | 17.2% | $6 |
| bull | $3B | $5 | 17.2% | $1 |
| base | $0B | $0 | 18.1% | $0 |
| stagnation | ($0B) | $-0 | 21.9% | $-0 |
| disruption | ($0B) | $-0 | 25.6% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $7/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Figma Make / AI Platform's incremental contribution to FIG equity. The 36% disruption probability is the largest single belief in the FIG model. Y1 revenue is built bottoms-up: (active $100K+ accounts × paid conversion × credit ARPU) + expansion. WACC 11.5-14% reflects speculative premium. Most value lives in terminal years for upside scenarios.
Target contribution: $7/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.