| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $1.4T | $118 | 57% | — | |||
| bull | $680B | $56 | 13% | — | |||
| base | $256B | $21 | 10% | — | |||
| bear | $53B | $4 | 10% | — | |||
| collapse | ($10B) | $0 | 10% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $78/share?
| Scenario | Cloud Segment EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $1.4T | $118 | 57.3% | $68 |
| bull | $680B | $56 | 13.2% | $7 |
| base | $256B | $21 | 9.8% | $2 |
| bear | $53B | $4 | 9.8% | $0 |
| collapse | ($10B) | $-1 | 9.8% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $78/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Google Cloud's contribution to Alphabet equity. Search, YouTube, Waymo+AI, Other Ops, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $78/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.