| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Operating Margin % | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $3.0T | $248 | 34% | — | ||||
| bull | $1.5T | $124 | 17% | — | ||||
| base | $1.1T | $88 | 16% | — | ||||
| bear | $650B | $54 | 16% | — | ||||
| collapse | $389B | $32 | 16% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $135/share?
| Scenario | Search Segment EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $3.0T | $248 | 34.3% | $85 |
| bull | $1.5T | $124 | 17.4% | $22 |
| base | $1.1T | $88 | 16.1% | $14 |
| bear | $650B | $54 | 16.1% | $9 |
| collapse | $389B | $32 | 16.1% | $5 |
| Total | 100% | $135/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Google Search's contribution to Alphabet equity. Cloud, YouTube, Waymo+AI, Other Ops, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $135/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.