| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Total Rev | Total Ebit | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $202B | $17 | 74% | — | |||
| strong bull | $17B | $1 | 19% | — | |||
| moderate | ($13B) | $0 | 2% | — | |||
| limited | ($16B) | $0 | 2% | — | |||
| failure | ($14B) | $0 | 2% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $13/share?
| Scenario | Waymo+AI Segment EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $202B | $17 | 74.4% | $12 |
| strong bull | $17B | $1 | 19.0% | $0 |
| moderate | ($13B) | $-1 | 2.2% | $-0 |
| limited | ($16B) | $-1 | 2.2% | $-0 |
| failure | ($14B) | $-1 | 2.2% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $13/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to the speculative Waymo+AI contribution to Alphabet equity. Search, Cloud, YouTube, Other Ops, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $13/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.