| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Gross Margin % | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $492B | $41 | 56% | — | ||||
| bull | $275B | $23 | 13% | — | ||||
| base | $188B | $16 | 10% | — | ||||
| bear | $95B | $8 | 10% | — | ||||
| collapse | $52B | $4 | 10% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $29/share?
| Scenario | YouTube Segment EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $492B | $41 | 56.3% | $23 |
| bull | $275B | $23 | 13.4% | $3 |
| base | $188B | $16 | 10.1% | $2 |
| bear | $95B | $8 | 10.1% | $1 |
| collapse | $52B | $4 | 10.1% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $29/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to YouTube's contribution to Alphabet equity. Search, Cloud, Waymo+AI, Other Ops, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $29/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.