Too big to fail, too complex to fix quickly
Intel is simultaneously a US national security asset, the world's most ambitious foundry aspirant, and a declining product company. The US government's ~10% stake ensures Intel won't be allowed to fail, but government backing doesn't guarantee commercial success.
Restructuring is painful but necessary
Intel's workforce cuts, asset divestitures, and $20B+ in charges are the cost of decades of complacency. The question is whether the restructuring is deep enough and fast enough to matter before competitive damage becomes irreversible.
Intel is effectively a public-private partnership
With the US government holding ~10% equity, providing $7.86B in grants, offering $11B in loans, and funding the $3.2B Secure Enclave program, Intel's foundry is arguably America's most important industrial policy bet.
National security floor under Intel's valuation
With the US government holding ~10% equity and bipartisan political support for domestic semiconductor manufacturing, Intel has an implicit backstop that no other semiconductor company enjoys. This doesn't guarantee profitability, but it likely prevents existential failure.