| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $47B | $47 | 75% | subscription model | |||
| base | $26B | $26 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $17B | $17 | 5% | — |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $400/share?
| Scenario | Services EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $47B | $362 | 75.0% | $271 |
| base | $26B | $202 | 20.0% | $40 |
| bear | $17B | $131 | 5.0% | $7 |
| Total | 100% | $318/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Services' contribution to KLAC equity. Inspection, Specialty, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $400/sh. Residual: $81.6/sh.