| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $6B | $6 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $4B | $4 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $2B | $2 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $60/share?
| Scenario | Specialty EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $6B | $43 | 75.0% | $32 |
| base | $4B | $27 | 20.0% | $5 |
| bear | $2B | $16 | 5.0% | $1 |
| Total | 100% | $39/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Specialty's contribution to KLAC equity. Inspection, Services, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $60/sh. Residual: $21.5/sh.