| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $0B | $0 | 9% | — |
| bull | $0B | $0 | 20% | — |
| base | $0B | $0 | 24% | — |
| bear | $0B | $0 | 24% | — |
| collapse | $0B | $0 | 24% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $0/share?
| Scenario | AI Platform / Long-Term Optionality EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | ($0B) | $35 | 9.2% | $3 |
| bull | ($0B) | $6 | 20.0% | $1 |
| base | ($0B) | $0 | 23.6% | $0 |
| bear | ($0B) | $0 | 23.6% | $0 |
| collapse | ($0B) | $0 | 23.6% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $0/sh |
Target contribution: $0/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.