| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Loss Ratio % | Combined Ratio % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $5B | $5 | 15% | national coverage | ||||
| bull | $1B | $1 | 15% | state expansion | ||||
| base | ($0B) | $0 | 15% | — | ||||
| bear | ($0B) | $0 | 34% | — | ||||
| collapse | ($0B) | $0 | 20% | car wind down |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $11/share?
| Scenario | Car Insurance EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $5B | $68 | 15.4% | $10 |
| bull | $1B | $14 | 15.4% | $2 |
| base | ($0B) | $-1 | 15.4% | $-0 |
| bear | ($0B) | $-3 | 33.8% | $-1 |
| collapse | ($0B) | $-3 | 20.0% | $-1 |
| Total | 100% | $11/sh |
Note: Car insurance is Lemonade's growth bet. The US auto TAM ($386B) is 65x the renters TAM ($5.9B). These probabilities reflect the market's view on whether LMND can compete with Progressive's data advantage.
Target contribution: $11/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.