Deposition & Clean — Scenario Model

Current Price

$231

Deposition & Clean Component

$60/sh

Market Implies

69% chance of upside scenarios

15% collapse probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
mega bull	$70B	$70	34%	ald gaa ramp
bull	$39B	$39	20%	—
base	$28B	$28	15%	—
bear	$16B	$16	15%	wfe downturn
collapse	$10B	$10	15%	china ban expands

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027

chiplet proliferation

Chiplet architectures become standard for AI/HPC chips

Unlocks: Advanced packaging deposition TAM expands to $5B+

CoWoS and similar packaging used by NVIDIA, AMD, custom ASICs [advanced_packaging.json]

2028

ald gaa ramp

ALD becomes critical for GAA volume production

Unlocks: ALD content per wafer steps up 30%+ at sub-3nm

ALD required for gate dielectrics and work function metals in GAA [ald.json]

2028

wfe downturn

WFE spending peaks and enters cyclical downturn

Unlocks: Deposition tool demand drops with fab investment cuts

WFE historically cyclical with sharp corrections [wfe_cycle.json]

2027

china ban expands

Export controls expand to deposition equipment

Unlocks: Removes significant China revenue permanently

China 35% of LRCX revenue [china_exposure.json]

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $60/share?

Scenario	Deposition EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
mega bull	$70B	$106	33.6%	$36
bull	$39B	$58	20.0%	$12
base	$28B	$43	15.5%	$7
bear	$16B	$25	15.5%	$4
collapse	$10B	$15	15.5%	$2
Total			100%	$60/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to Deposition & Clean contribution to LRCX equity. Etch and CSBG Services contribute separately.

Target contribution: $60/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.