CSBG Services — Scenario Model

Current Price

$231

CSBG Services Component

$35/sh

Market Implies

77% chance of upside scenarios

11% collapse probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
mega bull	$34B	$34	46%	gaa upgrade wave
bull	$20B	$20	20%	—
base	$15B	$15	11%	—
bear	$9B	$9	11%	memory utilization drop
collapse	$6B	$6	11%	third party competition

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027

gaa upgrade wave

GAA transition drives massive chamber upgrade cycle

Unlocks: Upgrades from FinFET to GAA-capable chambers

Record upgrades +90% YoY [upgrades.json]

2028

memory utilization drop

Memory fab utilization drops below 80%

Unlocks: Reduced spares and consumables demand

NAND cyclicality [nand_etch.json]

2028

third party competition

Third-party service providers gain traction in Lam chambers

Unlocks: Reduces Lam's spares/service pricing power

Emerging competition in chamber services [industry]

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $35/share?

Scenario	CSBG EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
mega bull	$34B	$52	45.7%	$24
bull	$20B	$30	20.0%	$6
base	$15B	$23	11.4%	$3
bear	$9B	$14	11.4%	$2
collapse	$6B	$9	11.4%	$1
Total			100%	$35/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to CSBG Services contribution to LRCX equity. Etch and Deposition contribute separately.

Target contribution: $35/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.