| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Operating Income | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $635B | $247 | 58% | ai commerce | |||
| bull | $91B | $36 | 13% | — | |||
| base | ($26B) | $0 | 10% | — | |||
| bear | ($75B) | $0 | 10% | — | |||
| collapse | ($82B) | $0 | 10% | — |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $140/share?
| Scenario | AI Platform EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $635B | $247 | 57.6% | $142 |
| bull | $91B | $36 | 13.1% | $5 |
| base | ($26B) | $-10 | 9.7% | $-1 |
| bear | ($75B) | $-29 | 9.8% | $-3 |
| collapse | ($82B) | $-32 | 9.7% | $-3 |
| Total | 100% | $140/sh |
Note: AI Platform captures the incremental value of Meta's AI investment above baseline advertising growth. FoA and Reality Labs are modeled separately.
Target contribution: $140/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.