| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $3.2T | $1228 | 21% | ai agents commerce | |||
| bull | $1.4T | $551 | 20% | — | |||
| base | $872B | $339 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $377B | $146 | 20% | — | |||
| collapse | $173B | $67 | 19% | regulatory hit |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $480/share?
| Scenario | FoA Enterprise Value | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $3.2T | $1228 | 21.2% | $261 |
| bull | $1.4T | $551 | 20.1% | $111 |
| base | $872B | $339 | 19.8% | $67 |
| bear | $377B | $146 | 19.5% | $29 |
| collapse | $173B | $67 | 19.4% | $13 |
| Total | 100% | $480/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to FoA's contribution to Meta equity. Reality Labs, AI Platform, and net debt contribute separately.
Target contribution: $480/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.