| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Operating Income | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | ($13B) | $0 | 75% | breakeven | |||
| bull | ($99B) | $0 | 10% | — | |||
| base | ($122B) | $0 | 5% | — | |||
| bear | ($137B) | $0 | 5% | — | |||
| collapse | ($150B) | $0 | 5% | — |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $-15/share?
| Scenario | Reality Labs NPV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | ($13B) | $-5 | 75.0% | $-4 |
| bull | ($99B) | $-38 | 10.0% | $-4 |
| base | ($122B) | $-47 | 5.0% | $-2 |
| bear | ($137B) | $-53 | 5.0% | $-3 |
| collapse | ($150B) | $-58 | 5.0% | $-3 |
| Total | 100% | $-16/sh |
Note: Reality Labs contributes NEGATIVELY to META equity. The segment is a cash drain funded by Family of Apps profits.
Target contribution: $-15/sh. Residual: $0.7/sh.