← MNDY/AI Platform — Scenario Model
Blue = input assumption|Black = computed

AI Platform — Scenario Model

Current Price
$66
AI Platform Component
$4/sh
Market Implies
9% chance of upside scenarios
31% bear probability

Scenario Overview

ScenarioEV$/shProbTotal Ai RevGross Margin %FcfArpu Uplift %Key Gate
mega bull$8B$83%work execution os
bull$1B$13%ai monetized
base($0B)$03%table stakes
drag($0B)$061%rnd cut
bear($0B)$031%retreat

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027
Y2
sidekick monetization
Sidekick paid adoption exceeds 10% of customer base
Unlocks: Validates willingness to pay for AI copilot beyond bundled features
Sidekick exited beta Jan 2026, 500K+ messages [Till Freitag / monday AI blog]
2028
Y3
vibe scale
Vibe reaches $35M ARR, 100K+ apps built
Unlocks: Proves AI app creation is a durable product, not novelty
Vibe $1M ARR in 2.5 months, 17K+ apps [Q4 FY2025 earnings]
2029
Y4
agent monetization
AI agents generate $30M+ ARR from autonomous workflows
Unlocks: Proves enterprises trust AI agents for production workflows
AI Agents announced Q4 2025 — autonomous routing, updating, triggering [monday.com IR]
2031
Y6
ai platform flywheel
AI revenue exceeds $500M — platform economics emerge
Unlocks: Usage-based revenue scales faster than seat-based revenue
AI credit model provides usage-based upside [monday.com Support]
2035
Y10
work execution os
AI revenue exceeds $1.5B — work execution platform validated
Unlocks: monday is valued as AI execution platform, not SaaS seat company
'Work Execution Era' strategic vision [monday.com IR]
2034
Y9
ai monetized
AI revenue reaches $300M — material to P&L
Unlocks: AI is a meaningful revenue stream, not just a cost center
2034
Y9
table stakes
AI is competitive necessity but not profit center
Unlocks: Customers expect AI features but won't pay premium
2029
Y4
ai drag
AI revenue stalls — management recognizes cost drag
Unlocks: R&D spend on AI begins to taper as ROI doesn't materialize
2034
Y9
rnd cut
AI R&D cut to maintenance levels
Unlocks: Resources redirected to core WM and multi-product
2028
Y3
seat decline
Enterprise customers begin reducing seats due to AI agents
Unlocks: Negative revenue impact captured in Core WM bear scenario
Salesforce: early enterprise customers reducing seats ~10% [Salesforce earnings]
2031
Y6
retreat
AI platform deprioritized, R&D redirected
Unlocks: Management acknowledges AI monetization failure
Gartner: 40% of WM tasks by AI agents by 2028 — but revenue goes to Microsoft/Google

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $4/share?

ScenarioAI Platform EVPer ShareImplied Prob.Weighted Contrib.
mega bull$8B$1552.9%$4
bull$1B$172.9%$0
base($0B)$-12.9%$-0
drag($0B)$-260.5%$-1
bear($0B)$-130.8%$-0
Total100%$4/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to AI platform's incremental contribution to monday.com equity. AI Platform is pre-meaningful-revenue — the value is primarily optionality. The AI bear scenario (seat collapse) has its revenue impact captured in Core WM bear, not here.

Target contribution: $4/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.

Assumption Sources

vibeTractionVibe $1M ARR in 2.5 months, 17K+ apps — fastest product ever [Q4 FY2025]
sidekickEngagement500K+ messages processed since GA in January 2026 [Till Freitag]
aiBlocksAdoption77M+ AI Block automation actions — proves automation demand [Q4 FY2025]
creditModelAI credit model ($0.01/credit) provides usage-based revenue upside [monday.com Support]
workExecutionVision'Work Execution Era' — AI transforms from feature to platform [monday.com IR]
gartnerForecast40% of WM tasks by AI agents by 2028 [Gartner forecast]