← MNDY/Core Work Management — Scenario Model
Blue = input assumption|Black = computed

Core Work Management — Scenario Model

Current Price
$66
Core Work Management Component
$28/sh
Market Implies
45% chance of upside scenarios
29% deepBear probability

Scenario Overview

ScenarioEV$/shProbRevenueGross Margin %Ebit Margin %FcfNdr %Key Gate
bull$7B$77%mature platform
base$3B$317%steady state
recovery$2B$221%stagnation
bear$1B$126%ndr collapse
deep bear$0B$029%margins collapse

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027
Y2
enterprise 5000
Enterprise customers ($50K+ ARR) exceed 5,000
Unlocks: Proves enterprise motion is sustainable at scale
4,281 customers at FY2025 end, growing 34% YoY [Q4 2025]
2029
Y4
enterprise 8000
Enterprise customers exceed 8,000, >55% of ARR
Unlocks: Platform achieves enterprise-dominant revenue mix
Current: 4,281 at 41% of ARR [Q4 2025]
2031
Y6
margin inflection
Operating margin reaches 30%+ sustainably
Unlocks: S&M leverage from enterprise mix proves out
FY2025: 14% op margin. FY2026 guide: 11-12% [Earnings]
2037
Y12
mature platform
Platform reaches mature state with stable margins and low growth
Unlocks: CAP conclusion -- growth converges to terminal rate
Atlassian reference: ~20% growth at $5.7B revenue, 25% FCF margin [TEAM FY2025]
2026
Y1
fy26 guidance
FY2026 revenue in guided range $1.452-1.462B
Unlocks: Management credibility restored after 2027 target withdrawal
FY2026 guidance: $1.452-1.462B [Q4 2025 Earnings Release]
2029
Y4
enterprise majority
Enterprise becomes >50% of ARR
Unlocks: Revenue mix shift improves unit economics
FY2025: 41% of ARR from $50K+ customers [Q4 2025]
2033
Y8
steady state
Growth converges to low-single-digit, margins stabilize at ~20%
Unlocks: CAP concludes -- business is a mature SaaS compounder
Comparable to Atlassian's trajectory at similar scale
2026
Y1
below guidance
FY2026 revenue below guided range (~$1.15B vs $1.45B guide)
Unlocks: SMB weakness worse than expected, partially offset by enterprise
CEO: 'no improvement in no-touch performance marketing expected in 2026' [Earnings Call]
2031
Y6
stagnation
Growth approaches zero as enterprise expansion can't fully offset SMB churn
Unlocks: CAP ends -- business is ex-growth but cash-generative
NDR trend: 115% -> 110% -> projected 104% by 2031
2026
Y1
guidance miss
FY2026 revenue misses guidance ($1.10B vs $1.45B guide)
Unlocks: Enterprise growth can't fully offset accelerating SMB churn + AI seat pressure
FY2026 guidance: $1.452-1.462B [Q4 2025]. Bear assumes major miss.
2027
Y2
ai seat pressure
AI agents measurably reduce seat counts at enterprise customers
Unlocks: NDR drops below 105% as AI-driven seat contraction outweighs price increases
Gartner: 35% of point-product SaaS replaced by AI agents by 2030
2030
Y5
ndr collapse
NDR drops below 95% -- net revenue contraction from existing base
Unlocks: Existing customers are shrinking, not just growing slower
Asana NDR already at 96% -- peer precedent exists [Asana FY2026]
2026
Y1
weak guidance
FY2026 revenue well below guidance (~$950M vs $1.45B guide)
Unlocks: Both SMB and enterprise impacted -- AI disruption is real and immediate
FY2026 guidance: $1.452-1.462B [Q4 2025]. Deep bear assumes catastrophic miss.
2027
Y2
ai displacement
AI agents replace work management workflows at scale
Unlocks: Major enterprises cancel monday.com, switch to AI-native orchestration
Microsoft Copilot/Teams bundles PM free, Notion AI replaces standalone tools
2028
Y3
margins collapse
Operating margins approach zero as revenue declines
Unlocks: Fixed costs can't be cut fast enough -- RIF cycles lag revenue decline
Precedent: Asana NDR at 96% shows work management disruption is starting

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $28/share?

ScenarioCore WM Enterprise ValuePer ShareImplied Prob.Weighted Contrib.
bull$7B$1426.7%$10
base$3B$5017.4%$9
recovery$2B$3220.9%$7
bear$1B$1126.0%$3
deep bear$0B$028.9%$0
Total100%$28/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to core work management's contribution to monday.com equity. Net cash ($29.38/share), multi-product expansion, and AI platform optionality contribute separately.

Target contribution: $28/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.

Assumption Sources

revenueAnchorFY2025: $1,232M revenue, 27% growth [monday.com Q4 & FY2025 Earnings Release]
growthDriver$50K+ ARR customers grew 34% to 4,281, $500K+ grew 74% [Q4 2025 Earnings Call]
retentionAnchorEnterprise NDR 116%, gross retention 91% all-time high [Q4 2025 IR Release]
marginPathFY2025 op margin 14%. S&M at 51% is key leverage point as enterprise mix increases [FY2025]
compAnchorSmartsheet acquired at 7.6x rev by Blackstone/Vista [Jan 2025]. HubSpot at 6.6x [Mar 2026]
capJustification91% enterprise gross retention + embedded workflow automations = high switching costs. 12yr CAP comparable to Atlassian/ServiceNow moats.