Custom Silicon / XPUs — Scenario Model

Current Price

$75

Custom Silicon / XPUs Component

$35/sh

Market Implies

95% chance of upside scenarios

5% bear probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
bull	$32B	$32	75%	margin inflection
base	$13B	$13	20%	—
bear	$3B	$3	5%	—

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027

trainium3 ramp

AWS Trainium3 enters volume production

Unlocks: Confirms multi-gen commitment, de-risks AWS concentration

Trainium3 tape-out expected 2026 [hyperscaler_customers.json]

2028

5th customer

5th hyperscaler signs ASIC deal (Microsoft or Meta)

Unlocks: Validates Marvell as multi-customer ASIC platform

CEO indicates active discussions [hyperscaler_customers.json]

2030

margin inflection

Operating margins exceed 30%

Unlocks: Scale economics start closing gap with Broadcom

Current 22% OPM, custom silicon higher at ~28% [economics.json]

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $35/share?

Scenario	Custom Silicon EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
bull	$32B	$37	75.0%	$28
base	$13B	$15	20.0%	$3
bear	$3B	$4	5.0%	$0
Total			100%	$31/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to Custom Silicon's contribution to Marvell equity. Networking and Enterprise/Carrier contribute separately.

Target contribution: $35/sh. Residual: $4.0/sh.