| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $3B | $3 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $2B | $2 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $1B | $1 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $12/share?
| Scenario | Enterprise/Carrier EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $3B | $4 | 75.0% | $3 |
| base | $2B | $2 | 20.0% | $0 |
| bear | $1B | $1 | 5.0% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $3/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Enterprise/Carrier's contribution to Marvell equity. Custom Silicon and Networking contribute separately.
Target contribution: $12/sh. Residual: $9.0/sh.