| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $19B | $19 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $9B | $9 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $3B | $3 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $20/share?
| Scenario | Networking EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $19B | $22 | 75.0% | $16 |
| base | $9B | $10 | 20.0% | $2 |
| bear | $3B | $3 | 5.0% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $19/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Networking's contribution to Marvell equity. Custom Silicon and Enterprise/Carrier contribute separately.
Target contribution: $20/sh. Residual: $1.4/sh.