← MU/Conventional DRAM — Scenario Model

Blue = input assumption|Black = computed

Conventional DRAM — Scenario Model

Current Price

$425

Conventional DRAM Component

$120/sh

Market Implies

77% chance of upside scenarios

12% collapse probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
mega bull	$216B	$196	50%	ai pc content
bull	$117B	$106	14%	ai pc content
base	$42B	$38	12%	margin normalization
bear	$13B	$12	12%	trough recovery
collapse	($1B)	$0	12%	demand structural decline

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2026

server price surge

Server DRAM prices surge 60-70% on AI reallocation

Unlocks: Record server DRAM margins, supply discipline holds

KED Global / TrendForce Q1 2026

2027

ddr5 transition

DDR5 becomes majority, 2-3x content per server

Unlocks: Revenue per bit uplift, tighter supply

Industry transition

2029

ai pc content

AI PC DRAM content doubles to 32-64GB standard

Unlocks: Consumer segment volume growth from content

IDC forecast

2028

margin normalization

Conventional DRAM margins normalize to historical mid-cycle

Unlocks: Price competition as HBM supply expansion frees wafer capacity

Historical pattern

2027

oversupply begins

HBM capacity expansion frees conventional DRAM wafers

Unlocks: Supply surge depresses pricing

All 3 players at record capex

2028

margin crash

Gross margins crash below 20%

Unlocks: Standard memory cycle trough

Historical precedent: 2019, 2023

2030

trough recovery

Demand catches up to supply, pricing stabilizes

Unlocks: Standard recovery cycle

Memory cycles typically 2-3 years trough-to-trough

2027

cxl memory pooling

CXL pooled memory reduces DRAM requirements per server

Unlocks: Server DRAM content growth stalls

CXL Consortium adoption

2029

demand structural decline

DRAM intensity per compute unit declining structurally

Unlocks: TAM shrinks despite compute growth

AI efficiency, on-die memory trends

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $120/share?

Scenario	DRAM EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
mega bull	$216B	$196	50.4%	$99
bull	$117B	$106	14.5%	$15
base	$42B	$38	11.7%	$4
bear	$13B	$12	11.7%	$1
collapse	($1B)	$-1	11.7%	$-0
Total			100%	$120/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to conventional DRAM's contribution to Micron equity. HBM and NAND contribute separately.

Target contribution: $120/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.