← MU/HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) — Scenario Model

Blue = input assumption|Black = computed

HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) — Scenario Model

Current Price

$425

HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) Component

$250/sh

Market Implies

87% chance of upside scenarios

7% collapse probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
mega bull	$364B	$331	70%	sovereign ai demand
bull	$169B	$154	10%	hbm4e ramp
base	$29B	$27	6%	samsung requalified
bear	$5B	$4	7%	margin reversion
collapse	($0B)	$0	7%	alternative memory

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2026

hbm3e full production

HBM3E at full production, qualified across all major AI platforms

Unlocks: Revenue ramp from sold-out allocation

Micron FY2025 earnings

2027

hbm4 ramp

HBM4 volume production, 60%+ bandwidth uplift, hybrid bonding

Unlocks: Higher ASPs, larger technology moat

Micron/industry roadmaps

2029

hbm4e ramp

HBM4E 24+ high stacking, Micron gains share from Samsung

Unlocks: Technology complexity cements top-2 position

Industry roadmap

2031

sovereign ai demand

Sovereign AI and edge AI create new HBM demand pools

Unlocks: TAM expansion beyond hyperscaler data centers

Industry analysis

2028

samsung requalified

Samsung HBM3E/HBM4 fully qualified at NVIDIA

Unlocks: Competition intensifies, pricing pressure

Counterpoint forecast

2027

samsung floods capacity

Samsung HBM4 capacity comes online aggressively

Unlocks: Pricing collapse, margin compression

Samsung $38B+ capex, DCD

2029

margin reversion

HBM margins revert to commodity DRAM levels

Unlocks: Structural thesis disproven

Historical precedent: 2018-2019

2027

hbm demand stalls

AI efficiency gains reduce HBM intensity per GPU

Unlocks: TAM growth decelerates sharply

Model quantization/sparsity trends

2028

alternative memory

CXL-attached memory or PIM gains traction as HBM alternative

Unlocks: HBM premium erodes, Micron loses pricing power

CXL Consortium, Samsung HBM-PIM

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $250/share?

Scenario	HBM EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
mega bull	$364B	$331	70.3%	$233
bull	$169B	$154	10.1%	$15
base	$29B	$27	6.4%	$2
bear	$5B	$4	6.6%	$0
collapse	($0B)	$0	6.6%	$0
Total			100%	$250/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to HBM's contribution to Micron equity. Conventional DRAM and NAND contribute separately.

Target contribution: $250/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.