| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Gross Margin % | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $57B | $52 | 75% | enterprise majority | ||||
| bull | $14B | $13 | 10% | enterprise ssd scale | ||||
| base | $4B | $3 | 5% | — | ||||
| bear | ($1B) | $0 | 5% | trough recovery | ||||
| collapse | ($2B) | $0 | 5% | margin collapse |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $40/share?
| Scenario | NAND EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $57B | $52 | 74.5% | $39 |
| bull | $14B | $13 | 10.1% | $1 |
| base | $4B | $3 | 5.1% | $0 |
| bear | ($1B) | $-1 | 5.1% | $-0 |
| collapse | ($2B) | $-2 | 5.1% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $40/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to NAND's contribution to Micron equity. HBM and conventional DRAM contribute separately.
Target contribution: $40/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.